In his latest edition of Oliver’s Insights, Dr Shane Oliver reviews the Federal Governments 2014-15 Budget and provides his insight and opinion.
His key points include:
- After a 2013-14 deficit of $49.9bn, the budget deficit for 2014-15 is now projected to be $30bn, down from $34bn in the Mid-Year Economic Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO). For 2015-16 the deficit is projected to be $17bn (from $24bn in MYEFO) and a surplus is now projected for 2019-20.
- Fiscal tightening includes welfare cuts, public sector rationalisation and tax hikes, but with some offset coming from increased infrastructure spending.
- The fiscal cutbacks are modest near term and only really start to impact from 2016-17. As a result, there is unlikely to be much economic impact in the year ahead.
- The impact on the share market is likely to be minimal.
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